Risk probability game
Risk probability game professional#
Your responsibility as a cyber professional is to be able to: Identify, Protect, Detect, Respond and Recover (The Nist Framework) ANYTIME, ANYWHERE Always assume Worst Case Scenario When it comes to probability – that’s the only “not wrong” answer.How should I address Probability in Cyber Risk Quantification?: It’s a “catch 22” question – you can’t really get it correct because you have no control on the variables which are constantly changing. When asked by your management “what is the probability” of Cyber Attack X to happen, most likely you will get the answer wrong. You’ll always be wrong when speaking to management.It’s not a question of “if I will be attacked” but “When” AND “are Zero-Day exploits scenario going to be used” Instead, there is a clear ‘business model’ for your attackers to gain access to your systems and cause damage. Cyber attacks are constantly on the offensive, it’s not a “statistical game” like with car accident insurance.On day X your Probability is low because all of your machines are patched, but day Y a new security flaw on a core system means probability soars. For example, with Ransomware, the attack vector for Ransowmare to ‘get into your organization’ is evolving on a DAILY (and sometimes hourly) basis. Cyber Security Threats are evolving MUCH quicker than any “past knowledge” experience that you can determine the probability factor on.I believe after working for years on Cyber Risk quantification into Financial figures (from consulting through to the development of Boardish) that for the Cyber Security Realm focusing on Probability is a mistake. But it also blinds Cyber Professionals from seeing the huge landmine which is “Quantifying Probability” This illustration is one the best ways to illustrate how probability and impact “go together” but also because it’s so clear. * Picture Credits – The Cyber Security Hub They’re working on the Probability & Impact methodology, shown brilliantly in the picture below: But a lot of them have something in common. Soc., 72: 46–66, 1952.Cyber Risk Quantification is becoming more familiar and I’m seeing more SME / Large companies and consultants using Quantification methods for clients. Comonotonicity, Correlation Order and Premium Principles.
Statistical Reasoning with Imprecise Probabilities. This paper is available via ftp: //.be/pub/isipta99/055.pdf. Paper presented at the 1st International Symposium on Imprecise Probabilities and Their Applications, Ghent, Belgium June 29-July 2. Towards a unified theory of imprecise probability. Zur Maßtheorie in der allgemeinen Mengenlehre. Integral representation without additivity. Contribution à la théorie des fonctionnelles linéaires en connection avec la théorie de la measure des ensembles abstraits. Partially ordered linear topological spaces. Master’s thesis, Universität Bremen, 1999. Hedging and liquidation under transaction costs in currency markets. Coherent risk measures, valuation bonds and (t, a) portfolio optimisation. Application of the Radon-Nikodym theorem to the theory of sufficient statistics. A new premium calculation principle based on Orlicz norms. Springer-Verlag, Berlin Heidelberg New York, 1975. In Lecture Notes in Mathematics, volume 485. Geometry of Banach space-selected topics. Mathematik-Arbeitspapiere 34, Universität Bremen, 1989.ĭ. Verzerrte Wahrscheinlichkeiten in der Versicherungsmathematik, quantilabhängige Prämienprinzipien. Lecture Notes of the Cattedra Galileiana at the Scuola Normale di Pisa, March 2000.ĭ. A proof that every Banach space is subreflexive.
Zeitschrift für Wahrscheinlichkeitstheorie und verwandte Gebiete, 1: 28–46, 1962.Į. Über die Fortsetzung von Wahrscheinlichkeiten.